During the night session, SHFE tin prices remained high and consolidated, while downstream enterprises maintained a cautious purchasing strategy. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on October 14, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) opened slightly higher in the night session, then fluctuated and pulled back, hitting a low of 281,640 yuan/mt and closing at 282,800 yuan/mt, down 0.26% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Preliminary data released by IDC on Monday showed that global smartphone shipments grew 2.6% in Q3, driven by strong consumer demand for high-end and AI-enabled devices. IDC data indicated that global smartphone shipments increased to 322.7 million units in Q3, with Apple achieving its best-ever Q3 performance and Samsung recording its strongest quarterly growth on record. Samsung maintained its top global position with shipments of 61.4 million units, while Apple's shipments rose nearly 3% to 58.6 million units. Xiaomi, Transsion, and VIVO also saw significant growth in the quarter. IDC expressed optimism for the remainder of 2025, expecting strong year-end sales fueled by aggressive sales promotions, expanding AI features, and continued device innovation. (2) Samsung Electronics said on Tuesday that it expects Q3 operating profit to jump 32% YoY, exceeding analyst forecasts. Growth in demand for traditional memory chips helped offset weak sales of the company's high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. As the world's largest memory chip maker, Samsung projected an operating profit of 12.1 trillion won for the July-September period, surpassing the LSEG estimate of 10.1 trillion won. Documents showed that Samsung expects Q3 revenue to increase 8.7% YoY to 86 trillion won. Samsung is scheduled to release more detailed earnings later this month, including profit figures for each business division. (3) During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China built the world's largest EV charging network, with two charging piles for every five vehicles. Statistics show that the country now has over 300,000 public charging stations, up 303% from 2021, far exceeding the 110,000 gas stations, ensuring long-distance interprovincial travel. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Hangzhou established a public charging circle, with a charging service radius of only 0.9 km in the urban area, full coverage of supercharging stations at expressway service areas, and charging facilities reaching all 191 townships. Charging stations are now available almost wherever there is a parking lot, including shopping malls, hotels, and expressway service areas. In the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, NEVs are not only tools for green travel but are also becoming flexible "mobile power supplies" for the power grid.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas like Yunnan, and some smelters remain under maintenance in October (Bullish ★). (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. Emerging sectors provide limited boost: although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to fill the gap left by the decline in traditional sector consumption.

Spot market: Trading in the spot market continues to be sluggish. Although prices have pulled back from the 290,000 yuan mark, the 280,000 yuan level is still difficult for downstream enterprises to accept. Considering that inventories are critically low, some downstream enterprises have opted to make just-in-time procurement in small quantities, but overall transactions remain constrained.

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